Win Rate & Expectancy Calculator
Find the win rate you need to break even at your reward-to-risk ratio, and the average result per trade your numbers imply, after fees. Work in R multiples or dollars.
Your numbers
Round-trip commission and fees.
Enter the average loss as a positive number. In R mode, 1R is the amount you risk per trade, so an average loss of 1 means losers hit the full stop.
Result
average result per trade, or +20R over 100 trades on average
- Reward : risk
- 2 : 1
- Break-even win rate
- 33.3%
- Your win rate
- 40.0%
- Margin over break-even
- 6.7 points
This is an average, not a forecast. Losing streaks happen even with a positive expectancy, and real results vary widely around it.
Break-even win rate by reward : risk
| Reward : risk | Break-even win rate |
|---|---|
| 0.5 : 1 | 66.7% |
| 1 : 1 | 50.0% |
| 1.5 : 1 | 40.0% |
| 2 : 1 | 33.3% |
| 3 : 1 | 25.0% |
Before fees: 1 ÷ (1 + R).
Learn risk before strategy
The free Futures Trading course covers contract specs, position sizing and prop firm rules, with clear risk warnings. Turn an R multiple into contracts with the ES futures calculator.
Free futures course (sign-in required)The formulas
R = Average win ÷ Average loss
Break-even win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + R) (no fees)
= (Average loss + Fees) ÷ (Average win + Average loss)
Expectancy / trade = Win rate × Average win − (1 − Win rate) × Average loss − Fees
Expected over N = Expectancy × NExample: risking 1R to make 2R, the break-even win rate is 1 ÷ 3, or 33.3%. At a 40% win rate the expectancy is 0.4 × 2 − 0.6 × 1 = +0.2R per trade, or +20R over 100 trades on average. A 0.1R cost per trade lifts break-even to 36.7% and cuts expectancy to +0.1R.
Risk: what the numbers leave out
Expectancy is an average calculated from the numbers you enter, not a prediction. Win rates and average wins drift as markets change, small samples mislead, and a positive expectancy still produces long losing streaks. Slippage and missed fills are not modeled. Results are hypothetical and not trading advice. The CFTC's futures basics warn that many individuals "lose all of their money, and can be required to pay more than they invested initially."
Check how a losing run would sit against a prop firm loss limit with the trailing drawdown calculator.
FAQ
What win rate do I need to break even?
Break-even win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + R), where R is your average win divided by your average loss. At 1:1 you need 50%, at 2:1 about 33.3% and at 3:1 25%, before costs. Fees and commissions push every one of those numbers up.
How do you calculate trading expectancy?
Expectancy = win rate × average win − loss rate × average loss − costs per trade. A 40% win rate with 2R winners and 1R losers gives 0.4 × 2 − 0.6 × 1 = +0.2R per trade on average, before fees.
Is a high win rate better than a high reward-to-risk ratio?
Neither wins on its own. A 70% win rate loses money if the average loss is three times the average win, and a 30% win rate can be profitable with 3:1 winners. What matters is the combination, which is what expectancy measures.
Does a positive expectancy mean I will make money?
No. Expectancy is an average over many trades, calculated from past or assumed numbers that may not hold. Losing streaks happen even with a positive edge, and position size, costs and slippage decide whether an account survives them.
How many trades do I need to trust my win rate?
More than most traders think. Over 20 or 30 trades a real 50% win rate can easily show up as 35% or 65% by chance. Track a large sample under consistent rules before treating your averages as reliable.